What can Russia’s invasion of Ukraine teach us about the next great global conflict?
And no, it has nothing to do with nuclear weapons
It’s estimated that humans will mine more rare earth minerals over the next 3 decades than the previous 20,000 years combined. These minerals are called rare, not because they are scarce but because they are extremely difficult to cultivate and extract. They are also key to continued technology advancements in a variety of applications from warfare to 5G.
Some notable examples include:
- Next-generation batteries
- Semiconductors
- Guidance systems
- Lasers
Ukraine has one of the world’s largest untapped supplies of these minerals and the country’s more modern infrastructure makes them an ideal extractor over the next decade.
At the peak of Russia’s encroachment into Ukrainian territory, they controlled almost 20% of Ukraine’s untapped rare earth resources worth close to $12 trillion. Although Ukraine’s extraction of these resources is rather nascent, the importance of their existence within a country’s borders cannot be understated. Fourteen strategically important rare earth minerals are not even found in the US, for example.
Unfortunately, Russia’s war in Ukraine is as much about the control of these resources as it is about shipping, heritage, or NATO. In fact — Russia and China are also leading developers of African rare earth mines, another massive untapped region for these important resources.
As Russia and China continue to develop their strategic extraction targets, the West has struggled. In 2021, the EU’s rare earth mineral dependency was over 90%, with most coming from China. Today, the US is also a net importer of rare earth minerals from China, and China continues to lead the world in both extraction and processing of these resources.
As resources become more scarce and global crises demand better technology, it’s likely the next great global conflict will be about control and extraction of rare earth minerals. Where and how these conflicts proliferate is yet to be seen. Africa continues to be a likely target for greater intervention by both the US and China. Should the US and EU continue to be as dependent on Chinese extraction and processing as they are today, China will continue to have a powerful bargaining chip as geopolitical tensions continue to rise.
The reality for our future cannot be overstated. Rare earth minerals are likely to be key to solving the climate crisis, expanding access to internet for all, and advancing the future of AI.
